CALIFORNIA

Charles Ratliff, Deputy Director, California Postsecondary Education Commission

The Challenges

California is expecting a significant increase in demand for postsecondary education. We estimate that approximately 455,000 more students will be seeking access to public institutions in 2005 than were enrolled in 1990. This estimated demand stems from strong and steady growth in the state over the past four decades fueled by a combination of high birth rates, longer life spans, and high levels of in-migration from other states and countries.

• In the decade 1970 to 1980, California's total population increased by approximately 3.8 million people. Between 1980 and 1990, population increased by 7 million more people. Between 1990 and the year 2000, the state is expecting an additional 6 million people. That rate of growth appears to be constant through the year 2020.

• California is simultaneously becoming younger and older. Aging "baby boomers"–those over the age of 45–grew up with broad access to postsecondary education and likely will continue to be a source of college demand. The children of these baby boomers, now in the K-12 segment, are the second fastest growing portion of the state population.

• California's population is increasingly diverse, and the racial/ethnic composition of our high school graduates will change dramatically over the balance of this decade. Between 1993 and 2005, the proportion of Latino high school graduates is projected to grow by about 49 percent, an increase of about 37,000. Among Asians, the increase will be about 15,000 or a 41 percent growth. The growth rate for African-Americans is expected to be 27 percent; Native American graduates will grow about 35 percent; while White graduates are expected to decline by 3.7 percent (Figure 1).

Some Strategies

To accommodate this huge increase in enrollment demand, the state is looking at a series of alternatives–some of them more palatable than others.

Prioritizing who should receive first priority for access to public higher education institutions with full state subsidy. This strategy had mixed success in recent years under "duplicate degree" legislation that imposed a $50 per unit surcharge on students with a baccalaureate degree or higher enrolling for undergraduate instruction. The law was allowed to sunset in 1996 because it resulted in greater reduction in demand than anticipated, particularly in the community colleges. Prioritizing access remains one of the strategies we need to revisit, however, since the state cannot afford to continually build new public campuses and buildings as we have in the past.

Encouraging more qualified students to consider enrolling in independent or private colleges and universities. This is being considered as a policy alternative to relying almost exclusively on public institutions as the primary vehicle for accommodating additional demand.

Initiating strategies to improve high school preparation, to reduce expenditures for remedial instruction, and reduce time to degree. This strategy is strongly supported by educational and policy leadership as well as voters and parents.

Incorporating technology to improve student learning and reduce average expenditures per student.  We estimate that up-front costs associated with building capacity to use technology will likely drive up per unit expenditures before any savings are realized. However, we believe the possibility of generating more efficient ways of providing a quality educational experience by incorporating technology warrants its inclusion in a comprehensive state strategy for accommodating enrollment demand.

Recognizing and certifying learner competencies as a means to reduce time to degree and expenditure requirements for campus expansion. Accommodating the projected demand for public college enrollment through traditional means would require an additional $1 billion expenditure every year for the foreseeable future just to assure physical capacity. Removing reliance on credits and seat time would free up space sooner to accommodate new students.

Making greater use of the private proprietary and vocational sector. Not all students are looking for credentials or degrees, and the state could be well served by identifying strategies to redirect those students seeking a more rapid entry into the workforce to the proprietary sector.