Appendix. B. Technical Information details the sources of data for the historical data used to make these projections, and any adjustments made to those data.

Beginning 2008-09, Native Hawaiians that were reported separately were added to the Asian/Pacific Islander category here, and multiracial individuals were distributed among the four race categories, as described in Appendix. B. Technical Information.

The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems supplied the data used in the first and last figures on the State Profiles. State-level estimates for those figures are only reported for a racial/ethnic group when the coefficients of variation for all estimates are less than 25% and sample size is 50 or greater. Users should understand that estimates for small samples can be imprecise due to large standard errors. The following files provide the data points, sample sizes and margins of error:

State Profiles Figure 1: Average annual percent of population aged 25-34 and 45-54 with an Associate’s degree or higher in 2008-10. SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File.

State Profiles Figure 5: 2009 and 2011 National Assessment of Educational Progress Mathematics and Reading Assessments. Source: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 2009 and 2011 Mathematics and Reading Assessments, generated using the NAEP Data Explorer. http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/.

State Profiles Figure 6: Wage and salary data 2006-10. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-10 American Community Survey Five-Year Public Use Microdata Sample File.

The State Profiles for the 50 states and the District of Columbia are available by clicking on the state in the map, or using the dropdown list, on the main Knocking State Profiles page.

Navigate to the Explore Data page and choose from among the three chart options. Three chart templates allow you to examine public vs. nonpublic graduates over time, compare three separate years disaggregated by racial/ethnic group, or analyze trends by racial/ethnic group over time.

You can download the data for these charts in Microsoft Excel compatible formats or select easily usable graphic formats. By selecting from the geographic options to the right of the charts, you can select individual states, multiple states, entire regions, or the country as a whole. You can also adjust the range of years displayed in the charts.

For the Public/Nonpublic chart and the area chart, you can include or exclude groups by clicking on the colored group in the chart key/legend.

You can obtain a table of the specific data that you have charted by using the option above each chart.  (You can also access, customize and download the complete set of Knocking data from the Download Data page.)

Navigate to the Download Data page to download the raw cohort data that WICHE uses to make the projections, including births, grade-level enrollment counts, the projection counts and other useful data.

From the options, choose which states or geographic areas, racial/ethnic group(s), academic years and other information you wish to download, and the file format (Excel or comma delimited).

Excel files will include a tab with definitions about the included data fields (also available in the FAQs below).

Note: The projections are a result of a mathematical calculation. Therefore, there is underlying decimal precision that is retained in the data on this website, but rounded to the whole number in charts. This may cause some small numerical differences when groups, states, regions and so on are added together.

To download data for a particular state, choose the state (or states) for which you would like data. Once you have the appropriate state(s) in the chart window, select the format for the data you would like to download from the drop down menu above the chart.

To download charts for a particular state, choose the state (or states) that you wish to view. Once you have the appropriate state(s) in the chart window, select the format for the chart you would like to download from the drop down menu above the chart.

The abbreviations used in the downloaded data, and displayed in the charts, the Frequently Asked Questions below.

WICHE uses data reported by each state to develop projections of high school graduates. Complete details on the projections are available in the Technical Notes. The projection model used by WICHE has been thoroughly evaluated and judged to be the most accurate of available options.

Important details about the data and methodology for these projections of high school graduates can be found in Chapter 4. Sources and Methods, and Appendix. B. Technical Information.

Graduates for the U.S. as a whole and for the regions are projected independently of the state projections, therefore these three levels of projection will not sum exactly to each other. Also, the projections for the Race/Ethnicity groups are made independently and therefore will not exactly equal the Public Total projections when summed. Chapter 4. Sources and Methods provides more detail about this. The sum of the graduates by Race/Ethnicity may also not exactly the Public Total in any given prior year for which actual graduates are displayed, if the state collects data on additional racial/ethnic groups. Appendix. B. Technical Information contains more information about this for selected states.

Also, the projections are a result of a mathematical calculation. Therefore, there is underlying decimal precision that is retained in the data on this website, but rounded to the whole number in charts. This may cause some small numerical differences when groups, states, regions and so on are added together.

The availability of federal education data determines the starting year for the projections. All public school data were obtained from the Common Core of Data (CCD), maintained by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), part of the U.S. Department of Education, from the publicly available state nonfiscal files and dropout and completion files. Data for public school enrollments were available through and including the 2010-11 academic year. Data for public school graduates were available through and including the class of 2009 (academic year 2008-09). Therefore, projections for public graduates and by race/ethnicity begin with 2009-10. Data for the nonpublic graduate projections comes from NCES’ Private School Universe Survey (PSS), and were available for enrollments through academic year 2009-10 and graduates of the academic year 2008-09, so projections for nonpublic graduates also begin with 2009-10.

See Appendix. B. Technical Information for more information about the source data.

WICHE continues to make projections by five major racial/ethnic categories, as it has for many editions of Knocking. Information about the racial/ethnic categories and the change in federal education data reporting can be found in Chapter 4. Sources and Methods, and Appendix. B. Technical Information.

Currently data are only available at the state, regional, and national levels. In future years, WICHE may work to develop projections for metropolitan areas and counties.

Any use or works resulting from analysis of the provided data must be attributed as Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2012.

The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) provides these data and tools for public research purposes. We strongly recommend that users review the Technical Notes for important information about data sources and methodology. Any use or works resulting from analysis of the provided data must be attributed as Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2012. By using these data, you acknowledge that WICHE is not liable for their use and bears no responsibility for the interpretations presented or conclusions reached based on analysis of the data.

The data shown represent what the state reported for graduates. There may be zero graduates in a given year. Also, in some cases, it was not possible to project graduates because of small numbers of graduates, or zero, in the years used to calculate the projections.

Explanation of Data Fields

State Abbreviation

Two-letter state abbreviations, plus values for regions:
S=South region
W=West region
N=Northeast region
M=Midwest region
U=United States

Type of Graduate

G=Total public
NP=Nonpublic
AM=American Indian/Alaska Native
AS=Asian,
BL=Black non-Hispanic
HI=Hispanic
WH=White non-Hispanic
Note: The Total and Nonpublic Total value can be calculated by adding the Total Public and Nonpublic values (Type of Graduate=G and NP, respectively).

Academic Year

The year shown is the beginning year of each academic year, e.g., 1996=1996-97.

Grade 1 Enrollments to Grade 12 Enrollments

Count of student enrollments, for the type of student (same as Type of Graduate) in that grade for the referenced Academic Year.

Diploma Count

Count of diploma recipients, for the Type of Graduate for the referenced Academic Year.

Region

Region in which the state (State Abbreviation) is categorized
S=South region
W=West region
N=Northeast region
M=Midwest region
U=United States

Year of Birth

This is the year that students counted in the Grade 1 Enrollments for the Academic Year referenced would have been born (approximately), e.g., the corresponding year of births for first graders in 1996-97 was 1990.

Number of Births

The number of live births in the Year of Birth corresponding to the students counted in the Grade 1 Enrollments for the Academic Year referenced