Projections of High School Graduates

The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) has been producing high school graduate forecasts for over 30 years, for use by a wide and diverse audience of policymakers, enrollment managers, college counselors, schools and school districts, researchers, and the media. This 8th edition of Knocking at the College Door presents projections through the class of 2028 by state and race/ethnicity. Our projections indicate that the era of annually increasing graduating classes through about 2011 is ending, while graduating classes are rapidly becoming more diverse. The map views below show how these trends will vary considerably by region and state, and this website also offers access to the full report, individual state profiles, and a tool for obtaining customizable data tables and graphs.
 

State Profiles


Use the map or this list to choose a state
Change map view to see
 

Non-White Share of Public High School Graduates, 2019-20 (Projected)

State and regional data map
Mouse-over the legend to see categories

Percent Change Between 2008-09 and 2019-20 in Total High School Graduates, by State

State and regional data map
Mouse-over the legend to see categories
 
Source: See data for this map, compiled from the Knocking at the College Door full report and data. More information is also available on the Technical Notes page.

UNITED STATES Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -2% Graduates: 3,347,948 in 2008-09, 3,284,823 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 37% in 2008-09, 45% in 2019-20 WEST Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -2% Graduates: 772,322 in 2008-09, 760,348 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 48% in 2008-09, 55% in 2019-20 MIDWEST Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -8% Graduates: 767,652 in 2008-09, 708,585 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 22% in 2008-09, 26% in 2019-20 NORTHEAST Change 2008-09 to 2026-27: -7% Graduates: 641,902 in 2008-09, 599,484 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 31% in 2008-09, 38% in 2019-20 SOUTH Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 4% Graduates: 1,166,072 in 2008-09, 1,209,949 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 44% in 2008-09, 53% in 2019-20 ALABAMA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 4% Graduates: 47,359 in 2008-09, 49,073 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 37% in 2008-09, 39% in 2019-20 ALASKA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -9% Graduates: 8,197 in 2008-09, 7,469 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 36% in 2008-09, 42% in 2019-20 ARIZONA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -5% Graduates: 65,129 in 2008-09, 61,945 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 49% in 2008-09, 55% in 2019-20 ARKANSAS Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 1% Graduates: 29,387 in 2008-09, 29,711 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 29% in 2008-09, 35% in 2019-20 CALIFORNIA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -6% Graduates: 407,566 in 2008-09, 384,600 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 63% in 2008-09, 71% in 2019-20 COLORADO Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 16% Graduates: 50,297 in 2008-09, 58,107 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 30% in 2008-09, 36% in 2019-20 CONNECTICUT Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -7% Graduates: 41,201 in 2008-09, 38,503 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 27% in 2008-09, 36% in 2019-20 DELAWARE Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -2% Graduates: 9,756 in 2008-09, 9,524 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 41% in 2008-09, 50% in 2019-20 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -23% Graduates: 4,856 in 2008-09, 3,726 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 96% in 2008-09, 89% in 2019-20 FLORIDA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -7% Graduates: 171,716 in 2008-09, 160,292 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 47% in 2008-09, 58% in 2019-20 GEORGIA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 3% Graduates: 96,325 in 2008-09, 99,618 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 47% in 2008-09, 53% in 2019-20 HAWAII Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -6% Graduates: 14,167 in 2008-09, 13,354 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 82% in 2008-09, 85% in 2019-20 IDAHO Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 12% Graduates: 17,350 in 2008-09, 19,387 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 15% in 2008-09, 22% in 2019-20 ILLINOIS Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -6% Graduates: 146,777 in 2008-09, 138,491 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 36% in 2008-09, 42% in 2019-20 INDIANA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -2% Graduates: 68,895 in 2008-09, 67,468 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 16% in 2008-09, 23% in 2019-20 IOWA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -6% Graduates: 36,175 in 2008-09, 33,988 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 10% in 2008-09, 17% in 2019-20 KANSAS Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 5% Graduates: 32,534 in 2008-09, 34,293 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 21% in 2008-09, 27% in 2019-20 KENTUCKY Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -5% Graduates: 45,788 in 2008-09, 43,348 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 13% in 2008-09, 20% in 2019-20 LOUISIANA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 10% Graduates: 43,758 in 2008-09, 48,036 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 45% in 2008-09, 48% in 2019-20 MAINE Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -18% Graduates: 16,455 in 2008-09, 13,521 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 5% in 2008-09, 8% in 2019-20 MARYLAND Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -7% Graduates: 67,532 in 2008-09, 62,517 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 48% in 2008-09, 56% in 2019-20 MASSACHUSETTS Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -9% Graduates: 75,888 in 2008-09, 69,191 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 24% in 2008-09, 31% in 2019-20 MICHIGAN Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -19% Graduates: 121,261 in 2008-09, 98,736 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 24% in 2008-09, 26% in 2019-20 MINNESOTA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -6% Graduates: 63,970 in 2008-09, 60,438 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 17% in 2008-09, 23% in 2019-20 MISSISSIPPI Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -2% Graduates: 27,863 in 2008-09, 27,352 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 51% in 2008-09, 53% in 2019-20 MISSOURI Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -7% Graduates: 70,012 in 2008-09, 64,791 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 21% in 2008-09, 23% in 2019-20 MONTANA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -10% Graduates: 10,449 in 2008-09, 9,375 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 12% in 2008-09, 15% in 2019-20 NEBRASKA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 5% Graduates: 21,505 in 2008-09, 22,475 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 17% in 2008-09, 26% in 2019-20 NEVADA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 15% Graduates: 20,728 in 2008-09, 23,790 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 46% in 2008-09, 63% in 2019-20 NEW HAMPSHIRE Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -18% Graduates: 17,220 in 2008-09, 14,081 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 6% in 2008-09, 11% in 2019-20 NEW JERSEY Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -8% Graduates: 109,433 in 2008-09, 100,269 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 40% in 2008-09, 49% in 2019-20 NEW MEXICO Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 4% Graduates: 19,318 in 2008-09, 20,124 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 65% in 2008-09, 71% in 2019-20 NEW YORK Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 0% Graduates: 212,162 in 2008-09, 212,814 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 42% in 2008-09, 48% in 2019-20 NORTH CAROLINA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 5% Graduates: 92,439 in 2008-09, 96,689 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 38% in 2008-09, 45% in 2019-20 NORTH DAKOTA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -4% Graduates: 7,717 in 2008-09, 7,407 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 10% in 2008-09, 18% in 2019-20 OHIO Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -7% Graduates: 135,506 in 2008-09, 125,805 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 16% in 2008-09, 18% in 2019-20 OKLAHOMA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 7% Graduates: 38,750 in 2008-09, 41,574 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 38% in 2008-09, 47% in 2019-20 OREGON Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -3% Graduates: 38,277 in 2008-09, 36,948 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 22% in 2008-09, 34% in 2019-20 PENNSYLVANIA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -9% Graduates: 149,321 in 2008-09, 135,767 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 20% in 2008-09, 26% in 2019-20 RHODE ISLAND Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -16% Graduates: 11,846 in 2008-09, 9,925 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 27% in 2008-09, 34% in 2019-20 SOUTH CAROLINA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 0% Graduates: 42,187 in 2008-09, 42,060 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 42% in 2008-09, 41% in 2019-20 SOUTH DAKOTA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 3% Graduates: 8,641 in 2008-09, 8,930 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 11% in 2008-09, 20% in 2019-20 TENNESSEE Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 0% Graduates: 66,587 in 2008-09, 66,323 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 28% in 2008-09, 32% in 2019-20 TEXAS Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 20% Graduates: 277,178 in 2008-09, 332,395 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 58% in 2008-09, 70% in 2019-20 UTAH Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 23% Graduates: 31,733 in 2008-09, 38,954 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 15% in 2008-09, 20% in 2019-20 VERMONT Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -19% Graduates: 8,376 in 2008-09, 6,801 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 5% in 2008-09, 8% in 2019-20 VIRGINIA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 0% Graduates: 86,162 in 2008-09, 85,857 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 37% in 2008-09, 44% in 2019-20 WASHINGTON Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 1% Graduates: 67,212 in 2008-09, 67,595 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 27% in 2008-09, 35% in 2019-20 WEST VIRGINIA Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -4% Graduates: 18,429 in 2008-09, 17,673 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 6% in 2008-09, 8% in 2019-20 WISCONSIN Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: -10% Graduates: 71,017 in 2008-09, 64,194 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 17% in 2008-09, 21% in 2019-20 WYOMING Change 2008-09 to 2019-20: 7% Graduates: 5,541 in 2008-09, 5,929 in 2019-20 Share non-White: 12% in 2008-09, 18% in 2019-20 50% or more 40% to 50% 30% to 40% 20% to 30% 10% to 20% 10% or less 15% or more 5% to 15% 30% to 40% 20% to 30% -5% to -15% -15% or less