 Is Access to College
in Jeopardy in the West?Projections of High School Graduates to 2012
Introduction An increase in the pool of college-age students in the next 20 years is inevitable, but this may not lead to dramatic increases in higher education enrollment. State policy will determine whether all of the students who qualify for admission and want an education will have access to one. This issue discusses public policy concerns related to physical capacity, access, tuition, and technology and presents strategies to increase capacity through new facilities, joint-use facilities, and electronic access. A dramatic increase in the size of the college-age population is inevitable as we enter the 21st century. The "baby boomlet" or "baby boom echo" generation began entering the nation's elementary and secondary schools in the early 1990s. In 1996, at the mid-point of the growth curve, enrollment in the nation's schools surpassed all previous records. By 2006 the U.S. Department of Education is projecting that about 3 million more children will be enrolled in the nation's elementary and secondary schools than are enrolled today.1 As these children move through the schools, the number of high school graduates, and thus the college-age population eligible for postsecondary education, will also increase substantially. The impact of the "baby boomlet" or "baby boom echo" will be even more dramatic in the WICHE states. Births and in-migration have increased faster in states in the west and south than in other areas of the nation. Drawing on WICHE's recent publication, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1996 - 2012, this report outlines the changes that can be expected in elementary/ secondary enrollments and high school graduates in the nation and the WICHE region between now and the early part of the 21st century. 2,3 |
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| National Trends | The WICHE Region | Policy Implications | Strategies to Increase Capacity |
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1 National Center for Education Statistics. 1996. NCES a Back to School Special Report: The Baby Boom Echo. U.S. Department of Education. Office of Educational Research and Improvement. Released: August 1996, http://nces.ed.gov.bbecho/ 2 Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. 1998. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1996 - 2012. Boulder, CO: WICHE. 3 WICHE's projections of elementary/secondary enrollment include first through twelfth grades only. Kindergarten is not included. This issue of Policy Insights was prepared by Robin Etter Zúñiga, Research Associate at WICHE. She can be contacted at 303/541-0223 or by e-mail at CherylBlanco@wiche.edu. Material for this publication was drawn from WICHE's latest national report, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1996 - 2012. Policy Insights is a series designed as a companion publication for WICHE's recently published fact book, Policy Indicators for Higher Education: WICHE States. Drawing on the indicators contained in the fact book and information from other sources, Policy Insights examines current issues in higher education from the perspective of policymakers at the state level and on the campus. Paper copies of any Policy Insights can be ordered electronically though the WICHE Publications Order Form. There is no charge for paper copies of Policy Insights. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education -- WICHE -- promotes and facilitates resource sharing, collaboration, and cooperative planning among western states and their colleges and universities. This includes communicating research information and policy analysis on vital issues in higher education to education and government policymakers. Member and affiliated states are: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Western Interstate Commission for
Higher Education |
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