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Projections of High School Graduates to 2012 The WICHE Region The changes are even more dramatic in the 15 WICHE states, as the baby boom echo fills the region's elementary and secondary schools. First through twelfth grade enrollment has increased steadily since 1985-86 and is projected to grow continuously through the turn of the century. Enrollment is projected to increase from 10.4 million students in 1995-96 to 11.4 million in 2000-01, a 9 percent increase. Between 1985-86 and 1990-91 when the number of graduates declined nationally, the number of high school graduates in the WICHE states increased unevenly. Since 1990-91, the number of graduates has continued to increase more steadily, at an average of 2 percent per year through 2007-08. At the peak in 2007-08, there will be 747,000 graduates in the WICHE region, almost 200,000 more students than graduated in 1995-96, a 35 percent increase (see Figure 2).
Several states in the WICHE region are expecting increases of 30 percent or more in the number of students graduating from high school between 1995-96 and 2011-12. Graduates are increasing faster in Nevada than in any other state in the region or the nation. Unlike the nation as a whole, Nevada will see its graduation rate continue to rise, unevenly, after 2007-08. Between 1995-96 and 2011-12, Nevada's high school graduating class is projected to more than double (a 134 percent increase). Large increases in graduates between 1995-96 and 2011-12 are also expected in Arizona (62 percent), Colorado (36 percent), Washington (36 percent), California (28 percent), and Oregon (26 percent). Some states in the WICHE region will not contribute to this increase. North Dakota and Wyoming anticipate declines in graduates between 1995-96 and 2011-12. North Dakota's class of 2011-12 is expected to have approximately 1,373 fewer graduates than the class of 1995-96, a 16 percent decline. Similarly, Wyoming can expect a decline in graduates of 11 percent over this period (see Figure 3).
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