 Is Access
to College in Jeopardy in the West? Projections of High School Graduates to 2012 Policy Implications There is no doubt that there will be more students knocking at the college door in the early part of the 21st century. The single greatest policy issue facing higher education in the WICHE states is whether we can provide access to postsecondary education for every student who is eligible for admission and who wants an education. If the national college-going rates remain at the 1996 level, with 65 percent of recent graduates enrolling the following fall, the WICHE states will have approximately 13,000 more freshmen in the Fall of 1998 than in the Fall of 1997 and about 15,000 more in the Fall of 1999.4 If this projection holds, we will need one new campus the size of the New Mexico State University main campus each year through the year 2000 to accommodate just the additional freshmen, not including any additional demand from nontraditional-age freshmen, sophomores, or upper-classmen. Of course, the correlation between increases in the college-age population and higher education enrollment is not direct. The choices that federal, state, and higher education leaders make will affect the college-going rate. California's experience exemplifies how state and institutional policies may affect enrollment growth. Over the past decade, higher education enrollment in California did not grow as fast as demographic projections suggested it would. Slower than expected population growth accounted for only a part of this decline. Other factors included a fee increase of 200 percent or more at some public higher education institutions, extra fees for students who already held degrees, and student frustration with overcrowding in existing educational institutions.5,6 In short, in spite of the demographic trends, college enrollment may not grow if costs to students increase at a rate which discourages college attendance and if institutions do not have the capacity to enroll more students. Without adequate capacity to meet demand, states will not be able to enroll these additional students. Therefore, state and higher education leaders must find ways to increase capacity, without placing too heavy a financial burden on students who want to go to college. When the World War II baby boom generation began entering college, the higher education system expanded to meet the demand. In the 1990s, states do not have the financial resources to build enough new facilities to handle the emerging baby boom echo generation. Under these circumstances, policymakers are asking questions such as:
The effect of the baby boom echo generation will not be felt equally across states. At least six states in the nation, and two states in the WICHE region-Wyoming and North Dakota-are expecting declines in their high school graduating cohorts between 1996 and 2012.
Controlling the cost of education is one way in which states and the federal government encourage college attendance. Since the late 1980s, resident undergraduate tuition in the WICHE states has increased more than 100 percent. These increases have led to concerns about the increasing cost of education to students. In recent years, some state leaders have consciously tried to stabilize tuition rates. State fees at the University of California and California State University, for example, have not increased since 1994. Other states such as Colorado and New Mexico have experienced only modest increases in recent years. New federal tuition tax credits are another attempt to encourage college attendance in vocational and associate degree programs. The HOPE scholarship tax credit is enough to cover most (if not all) of the average annual tuition at two-year institutions in the WICHE states. It is not yet clear what impact this will have on college enrollment.
Many state higher education systems are turning to the use of information technologies as one way of increasing access. However, the effective use of information technologies to provide high quality education requires careful attention to many issues.
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| Introduction | National Trends | The WICHE Region | Strategies to Increase Capacity |
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4 U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics. 1998. Digest of Education Statistics, 1997. NCES 98-015, Table 184, p. 195. 5 Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. 1995. Tuition and Fees and Financial Aid in Public Higher Education in the West: 1995-96, Detailed Tuition and Fee Tables. Boulder, CO: WICHE. 6 California General Assembly. 1996. Projections & Prophecies: Planning for the Enrollment Tidal Wave. Sacramento, CA. |
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How can existing buildings and resources be used more efficiently?