Is Access to College in Jeopardy in the West?

Projections of High School Graduates to 2012

National Trends

After reaching a low point in 1984-85, first through twelfth grade enrollments rose steadily through the mid-1990s. This growth is expected to continue through the early years of the 21st century. First through twelfth grade enrollment in 1995-96 totaled about 44.6 million students in public and nonpublic schools. In 2000-01, enrollment is projected to exceed 47 million students, a 6 percent increase over 1995-96.

Trends for high school graduates are similar. After reaching an all-time high of 3.1 million high school graduates in 1978-79, the number of graduates dropped steadily for several years until the mid-1980s, then rose for a few years and decreased again. After 1993-94 the number of high school graduates began to rise. National projections of high school graduates between 1993-94 and 2011-12 show a gradual annual increase until 2007-08, when the number of graduates is expected to reach an historical peak at 3.2 million (see Figure 1). This represents a projected 30 percent increase between 1993-94 and the peak in 2007-08. From 2007-08 to the end of the projection period in 2011-12, the number of graduates will decline slowly. In 2011-12 the number of graduates will be 5 percent below the peak reached in 2007-08 and only 2 percent below the previous peak reached in 1978-79.