1	The Seven Wonders of the World Oregon Community College Association 2006 Convention October 24, 2006 David Longanecker Executive Director, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) www.wiche.edu
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10	Wonder I: I wonder if states - if Oregon - will be able to afford higher education as a “Public Good”? Higher Education’s “legitimate” hyper-inflationary cost structure. HEPI and HECA both exceed CPI High skill/high wage industry The bleeding edge argument The demand function All else being equal, Will see only modest growth in Oregon, Unless “all else isn’t equal
11	Demographic growth will range from a wish, to manageable, to a challenge
12	Wonder I: I wonder if Oregon State Government is capable of supporting this as a public good? Can we afford this?
13	Total Educational Funding per FTE, Percent Change by State, FY 1991-2004
14	Recent History Is Not The Same
15	The Financing Context: Structural Deficits for Everyone
16	Wonder I: I wonder if Oregon State Government is capable of supporting this as a public good? Can we afford this? In triage, do we let “the market” deal with higher education? Are there “more efficient” means to building a high-skill/high-wage workforce?
17	Wonder II: I wonder if folks will be able to afford college? The Pessimists’ View: As reflected in Measuring Up 2006 Most states, including Oregon, deserve “F” on affordability We’re losing ground Tuition is up
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19	Oregon Tuition (06-07)– A Lousy Area in Which to Lead Tuition&Fees 5yr Inc. Oregon $3,074 +59% WICHE Avg $2,308 +50% Ratio Or/WICHE 1.33 1.18 Rank 3/15 4/15
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21	Wonder II: I wonder if folks will be able to afford college? The Optimists’ View: Maybe this is an appropriate market correction. ROI for individual is substantial Demand has not eroded And, maybe the increases aren’t really increases. Some research shows not much change (Mundel, McPherson & Shapiro) Most research ignores some resources (ie. Tax credits).
22	Wonder II: I wonder if folks will be able to afford college? The Optimists’ View: The West Is Comparatively Good Oops – that doesn’t apply to Oregon But financial aid is on increase And the AAWG Proposal is GREAT
23	Wonder III: I wonder if American higher education is capable of increasing productivity & effectiveness? Strategy of recent past & near future – Community Colleges Effective at cost shifting Less effective at productivity Technology as the Answer Yes, as a part of the solution The Pew Center for Academic Transformation Great promise for remediation Expands both access and convenience No, not the whole answer Not a cheap fix, if done right The collegiate experience is still desired (and not just by the well to do)
24	Wonder III (continued): Can American higher education change enough to stay contemporary? Mission Creep Disease? Or inevitable “advancement”? Who’s The Culprit Leaders who want to make a difference Communities – build it and they will come State Government – mine is better than yours
25	Wonder IV: I wonder if we add advantage or simply filter some folk out? Graduation Rates (Percentages) – 2003 2 Yr 4 Yr Doc WICHE 28.8 39.5 59.9 US 23.1 41.9 59.5 Oregon 16.3 31.8 56.1
26	Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults—Percent of Adults with College Degrees
27	Wonder V: I wonder if we’re doing a good enough job? “American Higher Education is the envy of the world.” Evidence today – on dual dimensions of quality On quality of the product Instruction We simply don’t know – don’t measure comparative student learning On throughput, we stink On Research Still the Best But also the target (China, Korea, England, Canada, etc. have ambitious goals)
28	Percent of Adults with an Associate or Higher Degree
29	How do the numbers compare?
30	Wonder V (continued): Are we doing good enough? Our Challenge Status Quo won’t do in a global economy and world “Essentialist” philosophy Requires educating more, and more difficult to educate, and doing so better. And, that will require PUBLIC resources
31	Wonder VI: I wonder how we’ll know whether we are accomplishing our objectives or not? Accountability is key, but not well done today Institutions as the problem Confuse data for information Confuse reporting with performance Don’t like pay for performance (except enrollment) Don’t like comparison with others Policy-Makers as the problem Enamored of process factors, not outcomes Lack data bases to support an outcomes based accountability system. Promising activities SHEEO National Commission on Accountability NCPPHE Report on Measuring Student Learning Secretary Spellings National Commission Prospects of a National Student Record Data Base
32	Wonder VII: I wonder if quality and equality are compatible public policies for higher education? What do you think? Are we up to the task? And what if we aren’t?
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