1	From Smooth Sailing to A Perfect Storm David Longanecker Executive Director Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)
2	Smooth Sailing through fifty years Commanding an increasing share of the higher education market 1970: 25% of enrollment/9% of degrees 1990: 36% of enrollment/9% of degrees 2004: 36% of enrollment/11% of degrees Serving numerous “community” needs And doing so inexpensively
3	Smooth Sailing through fifty years Serving numerous “community” needs Academic Transfer 60% of California Students 55% of CSU Grads; 28% of UC Grads Workforce Development Up to 50% of Associate Degrees Other credentials (certificates and diplomas) Customized Training Programs Enrichment
4	Smooth Sailing through fifty years And doing so inexpensively Instruction Costs Per FTE California U.S. Research Extensive $20,338 $12,920 Masters I $9,428 $8,949 Community Colleges $7,073 $7,417 Source: SHEEO – SHEF from IPEDS
5	Consequences of Smooth Sailing Community Colleges Appear Responsive to Community Needs Nimble enough to change Inexpensive Non-arrogant The Result – the Darling of Political Leaders
6	The Perfect Storm Demand likely to exceed supply The nature of the demand increasing the difficulty of accomplishing the task Limited financial capacity to respond
7	The Perfect Storm—The Demand Wave Higher Ed’s Aberrant Behavior on Supply & Demand Mission Cost of Expansion Quest for Prestige Community Colleges Expected to Provide the Relief on Supply. Impact varies greatly throughout the U.S. Extreme in Southwest; virtually nonexistent in Northeast and Midwest
8	The Perfect Storm—The Increasingly Difficult Clientele to Serve An Increasing Share from Communities Higher Education Has Not Well Served in the Past From Majority to Minority High School Grads West in 2007-2008 South in 2017-2018 In Next Decade 200,000 fewer White H.S. Grads in U.S. 200,000 more Hispanic H.S. Grads More likely to attend Community Colleges Less likely to progress to success
9	The Perfect Storm—The Increasingly Difficult Clientele to Serve 61% Need Some Remediation – Many Never Progress Beyond Remediation Lots of Noise Around Graduation Statistics: Nancy Shulock 24% of degree seekers complete in 4 years Only 18% for Latino Students You do the math: (04-05 statistics) 118,419 cert., diploma, or deg in CA CCs 1,390,993 students enrolled
10	The Perfect Storm—The Financing Dilemma Inexpensive or Cheap On Price Low Tuition & Fees (06-07) U.S. Average: $2,272 California: $690 But Tuition Is Only Part of the Story Zumeta Total Student Budget (FT, Dependent) U.S. minus California: $9,884 California: $9,224
11	The Perfect Storm—The Financing Dilemma Zumeta on Capacity to Pay Dependent 10^th % 50^th % US minus CA $15,554 $53,120 California 9,084 49,805 Independent US minus CA $ 4,350 $27,291 California 2,990 $29,013
12	The Perfect Storm—The Financing Dilemma On Cost Average Funding for Instruction per FTE (U.S.) Community Colleges $7,417 Bachelors Colleges 8,423 CA Community Col. 7,073 How do you serve well the most difficult to serve clientele with fewer resources.
13	The Perfect Storm -- Show Me The Money
14	Policy Impact on the Perfect Storm -- Riding the Waves back to Calm Waters Preparation --The High School to College Disconnect High School Exit Standards & College Entrance Requirements Are Not Aligned --The Impact of Local Control Evidence: The Bridges Project @ Stanford – Mike Kirst Some promising new practice The CSU alignment project The federal State Scholars Initiative - the value/imperative of a rigorous curriculum Blended financial aid programs
15	Policy Impact on the Perfect Storm -- Riding the Waves back to Calm Waters Preparation --The High School to College Disconnect Bottlenecks in the Pipeline Blockages within the Community Colleges Evidence: The Equity Scorecard – USC/Estela Bensimon 2yr to 4yr: Articulation A Mixed Story Evidence: Jane Wellman’s excellent work – policy matters.
16	Policy Impact on the Perfect Storm -- Riding the Waves back to Calm Waters Preparation --The High School to College Disconnect Bottlenecks in the Pipeline Finance Policies Tradition Low Price is trademark But low price yields low resources Also leaves substantial money on the table From feds From well resourced students
17	Surviving the Perfect Storm that Community Colleges Face It’s possible But not by steering the current course