1	Knocking at the College Door Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity
2	Background on Knocking 7^th Edition of WICHE’s projections Projections of high school graduates by state and race/ethnicity Only publication to include nonpublic school graduates in projections Actual data from 1991-92 to 2004-05 and projections out to 2021-22
3	Caveat Emptor Assumes existing patterns continue indefinitely Policy changes not explicitly modeled NCLB and other accountability measures New state policy objectives Variations in funding levels that affect progression
4	Two Central Themes Changes in total production Escalating diversification
5	First Central Theme: Total Production Overall production of high school graduates/demand for postsecondary education National peak in 2007-08 concludes period of rapid expansion Subsequent moderate decline The change in production among regions and states varies greatly
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16	Second Central Theme: Diversification Escalating diversification – traditionally underrepresented populations are fastest-growing By 2014-15, non-Whites project to account for 42.1% of public graduates nationally, an increase of 7.5 percentage points Non-Whites’ projected share of high school enrollments in 2014-15 = 47.9% Driven by steep declines in White non-Hispanics and by rapid growth in minority populations, especially Hispanics
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21	Countdown to Majority-Minority Regions The West is projected to be majority-minority in 2010 The South follows by 2017 States As of the class of 2005: California, D.C., Hawaii, New Mexico, & Texas Additions by the class of 2015: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Mississippi, & Nevada
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29	Factors Influencing Shifts Births White births minus non-White births = 1.25M in 1990; 514K in 2004 The fertility rate (2004) among Hispanic women = 1.67 times the rate among White, non-Hispanic women Domestic migration Movement from Midwest and Northeast to West and South Schooling options Nonpublic and homeschools have higher proportions of White non-Hispanic students Immigration 7.6M new residents immigrated between 2000 and 2006 Most from Latin America, especially Mexico
30	Challenges Ahead for States, School Districts, and K-12 Schools How will those facing declining enrollments preserve quality despite reduced enrollment-based funding? How will those facing continued growth provide capacity and preserve quality in the face of that growth? How can they better prepare students for college and the workforce, especially those from the fastest-growing populations (Hispanics and Asians/Pacific Islanders) for whom English may be a second language?
31	Challenges Ahead for States and Postsecondary Institutions How can they enhance access and best ensure the success of all students, especially those who have been historically underserved? How can they preserve choice so that able students have a realistic chance to enroll at the college that best meets their needs and interests? How might colleges adjust to decreasing demand, but from an ever more diverse pool of recent high school graduates?