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Low Density Counties with Different Types of Sociodemographic, Economic and Health/Mental Health CharacteristicsLetter to the Field No. 18by Harold F. Goldsmith, Ph.D., Charles E. Holzer III, Ph.D., James A. Ciarlo, Ph.D., and Max A. Woodbury, Ph.D. Table of Contents IntroductionThis letter presents the results of a statistical procedure, Grade of Membership (GOM), used to empirically develop a typology of counties that may be useful in describing key characteristics of isolated rural or "frontier" areas of the U.S. Using 1980 data, it clusters counties in the coterminous United States into types that have similar social, demographic, economic, and health characteristics (Goldsmith, Holzer, Woodbury, & Ciarlo, 1998). Emphasis was placed upon the identification of county types that h ave concentrations of "sparsely populated" (less than 7 persons per square mile) counties or "less densely settled" (between 7 and 15 persons per square mile) counties, collectively called "low density". Sparsely populated counties are also often referred to as "frontier" and less densely settled as "frontier-like". The stability of county clusters between 1980 and 1990 is also evaluated. This effort was undertaken in order to help policy-makers make better-informed judgments about the health and mental health problems of rural populations, particularly those that live in low-density counties. Because of their remoteness, small populati ons, limited and fragile economic bases, as well as culturally diverse and often poor populations, these areas are likely to have difficulties supporting adequate health and mental health services. Such counties have special mental health service need, de mand and access problems. Moreover, all low density counties do not have the same levels of need for or access to services (Ciarlo, Wackwitz, Wagenfeld, Mohatt, & Zelarney, 1996). Generally, the need for and access to services in such counties can be indexed by their social, demographic, economic and health characteristics. Based on this expectation, this work attempts to describe the social, demographic, economic, and health ch aracteristics (structural characteristics) that help to identify different types of frontier and frontier-like counties. Stated differently, the GOM analysis identified groups of counties with clearly different structural characteristics, without regard f or population density. Then, by focusing on those groups with high concentrations of low-density counties, it is possible to find those counties that are most "frontier" or "frontier-like" and that share similar structural patterns, including health and m ental health service needs. AnalysisThe Grade of Membership Procedure. Grade of Membership (GOM) is a statistical classification procedure with the capacity to simultaneously identify and clearly and precisely discriminate clusters of cases or units (such as counties) . The GOM analysis determines the probability with which a select set of variables are associated with a pure or latent type (PT), as well as the extent to which any given unit (such as a county) has the characteristics of one of the pure types (see Golds mith, et al., 1998). In this study, the analysis produced 27 pure types. Variable Selection. Seventy-five variables were used in the GOM analysis of the 3064 coterminous counties of the United States (see Appendix A for a detailed list). Key variables included county level social rank (economic, occupational a nd educational status), household and family composition, housing characteristics, mobility, journey to work characteristics, ethnicity, and local economic activities (tax structure, expenditure for police and fir e service). Also, county data denoting the availability, use of, and need for health services were used in the analysis. The variables were extracted from the 1980 decennial census or other government statistics for counties for the same period. Their val ues were split into five categories that denote very low, low, moderate, high and very high levels of a variable. Generally, designation of very low to very high categories was based on the quartiles of the distribution of a variable in 1980. It should be noted that the variable values utilized were not for characteristics of subpopulations, but always for the total population. Variables such as the metropolitan-nonmetropolitan, rural-urban or density status of counties were not inclu ded, because the emphasis of this work was on the economic, social, and health variables rather than the usual geographic, central place or density characteristics. The overlap of the GOM types with these "external" geographic variables, however, is itsel f an interesting and important issue and will be discussed in the next section. Pure Types With Concentrations of Counties That Are Low DensityAfter executing the GOM procedure for 1980 county data, the next step was to identify the pure types that had concentrations of sparsely populated and less densely settled counties (as noted, collectively referred to as low-density counties). Pure type s were designated as having concentrations of sparsely populated or low density counties if the percentage of these counties in a pure type was equal to or greater than the average for these designations for all counties in the coterminous United States i n 1980 (13.9% for sparsely populated, and 23.2% for low density). Nine of the 27 pure types that were produced by the analysis (PTs 1, 2, 5, 10, 11, 13, 14, 23, and 27) met the designated criteria. Collectively, these nine pure types contain 79.5% of the 425 sparsely populated counties in the coterminous counties in the United States and 70.9% of the 712 low-density counties. Table 1 shows the distribution of the nine pure types by county population density categories. The pure types are listed in order o f decreasing proportions of low-density counties included in each type. Pure Types 2,1,5, and 10 contain the greatest percentages of sparsely populated and low-density counties; consequently, the structural characteristics of these pure types will be emph asized in this letter. The percentage of counties that are sparsely populated declines from 91.4% in PT2 to 25.20 in PT10; the percent of counties that are low density from 98.1 in PT2 to 57.72 in PT10. For the remaining pure types with above average perc entages of low density counties, the percent of low density counties in a pure type ranged from 38.26 in PT14 to 23.24 in PT 23. Table 1. Percentage Distributions of Designated Pure Types by Density
Table 2 classifies the nine pure types by their degree of rurality using a common rural-urban continuum coding scheme (Beale, 1983). Examination of Table 2 reveals that all counties in Pure Types 2 and 1 are nonmetropolitan (not part of the daily labor market area of a big city) and the vast majority (at least 75%) have populations that are totally rural (less than 2,500 urban persons in a county) and without easy access to a metropolitan area (not adjacent to a metropolitan county). Pure Types 5 and 1 0 are slightly less rural than Pure Types 2 and 1. While the vast majority of counties in Pure Types 5 and 10 are nonmetropolitan, there are a few metropolitan counties assigned to these types (2.3% for PT5 and 0.8 for PT10). Also, consistent with the sli ghtly less rural character of Pure Types 5 and 10, there are fewer totally rural counties (less than 45% compared to over 78% for Types 2 and 1). Excluding PT13, the remaining pure types are considerably less rural than Pure Types 2, 1, 5, and 10 (less th at 21% to the counties in the remaining types are totally rural). Like Pure Types 2 and 1, almost all counties in PT13 are totally rural (83.0%) Table 2. Percentage Distribution of Frontier-Like Pure Types by
* Source: Beale, C. (1983). Rural-urban continuum code 1980. Unpublished data. Washington DC: Economic Development Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture ** Adjacent refers to counties that are adjacent to metropolitan areas Principal Characteristics of the Low Density Pure TypesThe principal characteristics that describe the similarities and the differences among the nine pure types can be found in 12 key variables. These county variables include population size, working in county of residence (including working at home), eco nomic status, educational status, ethnicity, presence of husband-wife households, older housing, employment in resource dependent industries, and selected health conditions (including presence of physicians and hospital beds, and use of inpatient and outp atient health facilities). These characteristics of the pure types are summarized in Table 3, which is organized to show both the "defining characteristics" of the pure types (characteristics that distinguish a pure type from other pure types), and other characteristics that help describe their character and make-up.
Table 3. Distribution of Designated Pure Types by Selected Variables
Note:
Characteristics of the Low Density Pure TypesThe preceding characteristics of the low-density pure types help to paint a strong portrait of several types of frontier populations in different parts of the United States. The defining characteristics of the four pure types where the counties are pre dominately low density are presented below. These portraits echo the descriptions of frontier populations found in popular literature and relayed by mental health professionals in these areas (see Ciarlo et al. 1998). Pure Type 2 - Western Farmers, Ranchers, Miners The average person living in a PT2 county would be a white, high school graduate, most likely married, with a high to a very high per capita income who works in his/her county of residence, commutes less than 10 minutes to work and lives in an older ho me (built prior to 1951), which may be modular (10% or more) or rented (20 to 40%). Males are employed full-time, while women, if seeking work, are likely to be employed. Often, employment was in resource dependent industries (40% or more of the labor for ce) such as agriculture. Employment in service or manufacturing industries is likely to be very low (less than 10% of labor force). The population in these counties was very small (<15,000) and stable. The ratio of adult males to females was unusually high; there were often more adult males than adult females. Most counties in this pure type had less than 1% low birth weight bab ies a year, though some had a very high (2%) percentage. The rate of death by cirrhosis of the liver was very low (<0.1/1000 persons) in most counties, but very high (18/1000 persons) in a few counties. The counties also had a very low percentage of di sabled adult males. Most counties had very high amounts of federal funds for agriculture and natural resources. Their taxes were very high and the local spending per person was very high, including for education and highways. Pure Type 1 - Northern Great Plains Farming Areas The average person living in a PT1 county would be white, married, and living with his/her spouse and their children. They would have lived in the same, small community for at least the last five years. During this time they would have owned their own, older (built before 1951) home. While household income would generally be low, most men and women would have a high school education. If male, he would be likely to be employed and working in a mid-level job. Often, this employment would be in a reso urce dependent industry. If female, she would be likely to work part-time. Both would work in their county of residence (or at home) with less than a ten-minute commute to work. The population in these counties was very small (<15,000) and stable over a ten-year period. Most counties in this pure type had less than 1% low birth weight babies a year, a very low percentage of disabled adult males, and a very low crime rate. A lso, the counties are defined by moderate to high taxes and by moderate to very high expenditures for education. Importantly, medical service availability (number of doctors and hospital beds) is not a defining characteristic for this group of counties. H owever, the values for outpatient visits for this type did tend to be "low" or "very low". Pure Type 5 - Low Density Counties with Concentrations of Hispanic Persons An average resident of a PT5 county would be white (generally, 80 to 90% of county populations), married and living with his/her spouse and their children, often, in a town. Mothers with children are not likely to be employed (generally, less than 50%). He/she would work within the county and have a commuting time of less than ten minutes. Household income would be low and there is a good chance the family would be living at or below poverty level (15 to 30% of PT5 county populations, have incomes at or below the poverty level). He/she might not have completed high school (30 to 70% of persons 18 and over in PT5 counties, complete high school). If male, he would be working in a low occupational status job (generally, 40 to 45% of the male labor for ce); if female, chances that she would be working in a high status job exceed those of males. The likelihood that the average resident would be employed in resource dependent industries is less than that of PT2 or PT1 counties but still sizable (generally , between 20 and 40% of the labor force). The likelihood of employment in manufacturing industries is very low (less than 10% of labor force). Unlike PT2 or PT1 counties, the populations of PT5 counties generally include some Hispanic persons (at least 5% of county populations and often 20% or more). Counties in this pure type have a high to very high percentage of low birth weight babies. Th e percentage of adult, disabled males is moderate to low. Most counties have very high levels of federal funds for community resources and moderate local taxes. Expenditures for education and highways in these counties are moderate. Pure Type 10 - Retired Farmers An average person in a PT10 county would live in a county with a small population (15,000 or less) that is characterized by concentrations of elderly persons (median age of county residents is 54 or greater), few children, low economic status and r esidence in older (built prior to 1951) stand-alone home (90% or more of the dwelling units). While not as high as PT2 or PT1 counties, persons in PT10 counties generally work in their county of residence. Many of the residence of these counties, particul arly the elderly, either live alone or with non-related adults and receive social security payments. Employment in resource dependent industries, like agriculture, is often high (30 to 40% of the labor force) but below that of PT2 or PT 1 counties. Further, male labor force participation is moderate and often part-time. Most of these counties have a m oderate rate of doctors (MD and OD) per 1,000 population (between 0.7 and 1.1 per 1000). Reflecting an aging population, the death rate in these counties is very high.
All of the defining characteristics (characteristics that distinguish one pure type from another) of the nine low-density pure types are further detailed in Appendix B (for even more detailed descriptions see Goldsmith, et al., 1998). This appendix fir st presents a detailed analysis of PT1. Thereafter, the characteristics of each of the remaining low-density pure types are discussed in comparison to Pure Type 1. When a defining characteristic of a pure type is clearly different from that of PT1 (i.e., no overlap in the distribution of the variable), the information about the variable is underlined. Location of the Low-Density Pure TypesThe location of the counties in Pure Types 2,1,5, and 10 - the types in which low-density counties predominate - can be found in Map 1, Map 2, Map 3 and Map 4. This information is summarized below. The location of the remaining pure types with above average percen tages of low density counties can be found at the following web site: http://psy.utmb.edu/research/frontier/gom/gom.htm.
1980-1990 Sociodemographic ChangesTo determine if dramatic changes took place in the social and demographic characteristics of the designated pure types counties between 1980 and 1990 (which might alter the composition of the pure types or the classification of individual counties), th e distributions for eight key variables (total population, percentage of the labor force working in county of residence, percentage of population in poverty, percentage of persons 25 and over with less than 9 years of education, percentage of population w hite, percentage of population Hispanic, percentage of households that were married couple households (husband-wife families), and number of physicians (both MD's and OD's) per 1000 persons ) were compared for both 1980 and 1990. The results of the compar isons indicate that, in general, the sociodemographic characteristics of the designated pure types either changed very little or changed in the same direction as all counties in the United States. The variables that were relatively stable include the size of the population of counties, the percentage of the labor force that work in their county of residence, percentage of population that was white, percentage of population that was Hispanic, and the number of physicians per 1000 population. Important chan ges did take place in the distributions of the remaining variables. The 1980-1990 changes for each of the variables that were compared are presented in Chart 1. In general, populations tended to increase slightly, white percentages declined slightly, and working outside one's county of resident increased slightly. For other key variables, changes were also in the same direction, but greater. These included a reduction in persons with less than nine years of schooling, and a reduction in the percentage of husband-wife households. But there were fewer consistent trends f or health-related variables. For example, some pure types increased in physicians per 1,000 population, while other decreased. Similarly, economic status improved for some pure types, but not for others. Chart 1: Sociodemographic and Economic Change in the Pure Types Between 1980 and 1990 The 1980 to 1990 changes for the relatively stable distributions: Population. The size of the population of counties in the designated pure types generally remained stable or increased very slightly. The increases were such that most counties had populations that were under 15,000 persons in 1980 as well as 1990. Thus, in PT1, PT2, PT10, and PT13 counties the vast majority (over 70%) were small (less than 15,000 persons). In PT5 and PT11 counties there were some counties that had moderate size populations (15 to 45,000 persons). In the remaining p ure types, counties with populations greater than 45,000 were likely to occur in both 1980 and 1990. Working in county of residence. In 1990, as in 1980, the designated pure types were characterized by high (70 to 80%) or very high (80% or more) levels of their labor forces working in their county of residence. Most of the designated pure types, howev er, had counties that experienced slight increases in the percentage of their labor forces that worked outside their county of residence. Ethnicity - White. Generally, in both 1980 and 1990, the white populations of the designated pure type counties were at least high (at least 90% white) and many were very high (98% white or more). However, declines in the percentage of county populatio ns that were almost all white did take place in all the designated pure types. As in 1980, PT5 counties differed from the other designated pure types. For many of the counties in this pure type, less than 80% of their populations were white. Ethnicity - Hispanic. There was a slight increase in the Hispanic population of the counties of the designated pure types. However with the exception of PT 5, the counties of the designated pure types had relatively few Hispanic persons (less that 5%) in both 1980 and 1990. Almost all of PT5 counties had at least 5% and often 20% or more of their populations that were classified as Hispanic in both 1980 and 1990. Physicians. Generally, the designated pure type counties had relatively few physicians per 1000 persons in 1980 and 1990. However, the number of physicians (either MD's or OD's) per 1000 persons did increase slightly in 6 of the 9 designated pure types (PTs 1, 11, 13, 14, 23 and 27) and decreased slightly in other pure types. A few pure types (PT5 and PT10) had counties where the number of physicians per 1000 persons both increased and decreased slightly. The characteristics of the variables that changed between 1980 and 1990: Economic Status. Based on the distribution of the counties in the designated pure types by their poverty levels, it appears that an increase in economic status of counties occurred in three of the nine designated pure types (PTs 1, 2, and 13). Decreases in economic status occurred in the counties of the remaining pure types (PTs 5, 10, 11, 4 and 27). Educational Status. All of the designated pure types experience a reduction in the percentage of counties with high or very high percentages of persons with less than 9 years of education (30% or more of persons 25 and over with less than 9 years of ed ucation). Most likely this reflects the general trend in the United States for persons to have at least some high school education. Illustratively, in 1980, 37.7% of counties in the coterminous United States had population in which less than 20% of the pe rsons 25 and over had less than 9 years of education. The corresponding figure for 1990 was 79.4. Husband-Wife Households. Most likely reflecting a general pattern in the United States in the decade between 1980 and 1990, the percentage of household that were classified as husband-wife households declined between 1980 and 1990 in many of the design ated pure type counties. This pattern held for all the designated pure types. REFERENCESCiarlo, J. A., Wackwitz, J.H., Wagenfeld,M.O., Mohatt,D.F., & Zelarney, P.T. (1996). Focusing on "Frontier": Isolated Rural America (Letter to the Field No. 2). Denver, Colorado: Frontier Mental Health Service Resource Network, University of Denver. Goldsmith, H.F., Holzer III, C.E., Woodbury, M.A. & Ciarlo, J.A., with Stiles, D. (1998) Frontier-Like Counties with different Types of Sociodemographic, Economic and Health/Mental Health Characteristics: A Grade of Membership Analysis. Frontier Mental Health Services Resource Network. Manuscript in preparation . Appendix AQuartile Distributions of the 1980 Variables Used to Conduct the Grade of Membership Analysis of All Counties in the Coterminous United States.
* Denotes variables from the 1980 decennial Census (more detailed definitions of the variables can be found in NIMH Series BN-No.4 [1984]). Other variables are from the 1986 Area Resource File or unpublished USDA files. ** Designations vary from very low to very high based on quartiles for a particular variable such that for 0 to the first quartile is designated very low and from the first quartile to the second is low and so on. Appendix B.Pure Type Characteristics
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